Welcome Back, Mr President
Donald J. Trump has now spent nearly a full year back in the White House. The hair is unchanged. The volume is louder. The policy? Well… it’s mostly announcements.
In finance circles, Trump 2.0 has earned a new nickname: TACO — short for Trump Always Chickens Out. It’s affectionate (sort of), descriptive (very), and remarkably accurate. Why? Because this time around, President Trump is doing what he does best:
- Making headlines
- Threatening everyone
- And then… backing down quietly
Markets, unsurprisingly, are getting used to the noise.
The TACO Theory, Explained
In this second term, the pattern is clear:
- Trump threatens something enormous (a tariff, a war, a new Space Force).
- Markets panic.
- The White House walks it back.
- Trump changes the subject — often to tacos, ratings, or trousers.
It’s governing by loud suggestion, rather than legislation. It’s chaotic, theatrical — and, strangely, kind of stable.
Trump’s 2025: A Year of Almosts
Let’s review the key TACO moments so far…
Case Study 1: The 100% Fentanyl Tariff That Wasn’t
In early October, Trump announced 100% tariffs on Chinese pharmaceutical ingredients, blaming them for the US opioid crisis:
“If China keeps sending fentanyl, we’ll stop everything — the medicine, the pills, the penicillin, even the vitamins. 100% Trump tariff.”
Markets wobbled. Pharma stocks slipped. The dollar wobbled.
Two weeks later? The policy was… “clarified”. Then shelved.
A new task force (with dogs) was announced. The tariffs? Never implemented.
TACO score: 🌮🌮🌮🌮
Case Study 2: Canada, Cartoons, and Maple Madness
Mid-October. Trump watches a Toronto Blue Jays game on TV. During the broadcast, a local Canadian station airs a cartoon mocking his hair.
Trump’s response?
“Canada is being very disrespectful. They broadcasted jokes during our baseball. That’s unfair trade. Tariffs coming. Huge ones.”
Within 48 hours:
- New tariffs on maple syrup and Canadian TVs were announced.
- US importers panicked.
- Canadian officials politely blinked.
Within five days, the tariffs were walked back. A presidential aide later clarified the president had “been feeling underappreciated.”
TACO score: 🌮🌮🌮🌮🌮
Case Study 3: China, Round Two – Now With Cars
Trump also threatened to impose 150% tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, calling them “government-funded robot cars built by communists.”
The announcement came on a Monday.
By Thursday, it was being “re-examined.”
By Sunday? Gone. Replaced with a vague promise to support “real American muscle cars that run on strength, freedom, and horsepower.”
Markets: steady.
Tariffs: fiction.
TACO score: 🌮🌮🌮
Case Study 4: Regulating AI (or Not)
Trump announced that:
“We will make AI register as American. If it’s smart enough to pass the citizenship test, it can stay.”
Then he proposed:
- A Department of AI Affairs
- An AI border wall (unclear what for)
- A new AI-themed reality show called “You’re Coded”
By the end of the month, all proposals were dropped.
TACO score: 🌮🌮🌮 + bonus guacamole
But Despite All That… the Markets Haven’t Collapsed
Here’s the plot twist: US markets are fine.
- The S&P 500 is modestly up.
- The US dollar is strong.
- Investors are cautiously optimistic.
- And corporate earnings remain resilient, especially in tech and infrastructure.
Why? Because markets have finally learned that Trump’s words aren’t policies — they’re economic theatre. You don’t invest based on a monologue. You invest based on fundamentals.
What This Means for GSI Clients in the UK
You might be reading this from a quiet suburb in Kent, a village in Wiltshire, or a coffee shop in Brighton. So why should Trump’s 2025 antics matter to you?
Because when the world’s largest economy wobbles — even performatively — the ripple effect is real. But here’s why GSI clients remain insulated and confident:
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We Diversify Globally
Our Atlas portfolios hold positions across US, Europe, Asia, and emerging markets, reducing reliance on any one political personality (especially one prone to midnight policy U-turns).
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Currency Moves Can Benefit You
A stronger dollar has boosted returns for UK investors with US holdings — especially those in technology and healthcare sectors.
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We Invest in Substance, Not Soundbites
Our investment committee doesn’t respond to tweets. We focus on:
- Earnings
- Valuation
- Stability
- Long-term trends (e.g. AI infrastructure, clean energy, quality growth)
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We Plan for This
Trump wasn’t a surprise. His style isn’t new. We’ve built resilient portfolios that can handle volatility, noise, and taco-fuelled tantrums.
Final Word: In the World of TACO Leadership, Steady Still Wins
Donald Trump may dominate the headlines. But GSI clients don’t invest in headlines. They invest in well-structured portfolios designed to perform through uncertainty.
As we look ahead to 2026, we’ll continue to monitor markets, manage risk, and guide clients with a steady hand — even as the world’s loudest president searches for his next big announcement.
(Word on the street: he’s planning a “Trump-themed central bank.” Let’s hope it never sees the light of fiscal policy.)
